The Neighbor Effect

A $50M lesson in human behavior

Early in my product career, I thought I'd cracked it. After weeks of customer interviews, every user loved our new analytics dashboard. "Game-changing," they said. I confidently shipped the feature, ready for the flood of usage. Three months later, our data told a different story—they hadn't logged in since week one. Turns out I'd mastered the art of building things nobody wanted.

The truth is, customers genuinely believe what they're saying. Just like voters in polls who tell pollsters one thing but act differently in the voting booth. This pattern caught French trader Théo's attention during the 2024 election. Instead of asking direct questions, he ran surveys about neighbors' voting preferences. The results revealed stronger Trump support than any public poll showed. While others relied on what voters said about themselves, Théo looked at what they said about their neighbors. His insight worked—he pocketed $50 million in profit after Trump's victory.

This gap between stated and revealed preferences shows up everywhere in business. Users claim price is their main concern, yet premium products thrive. Enterprise buyers insist security is their top priority, but sales data shows they choose speed of setup. Companies build roadmaps based on customer requests, only to see new features ignored at launch. The stated reasons rarely match actual behavior.

Smart companies have been applying Théo's strategy for quite sometime. Amazon watches what people add to wish lists instead of asking about price. Netflix tracks what people watch instead of their ratings. Even startups can do this—ask "How would you explain this to your team?" instead of "Would you use this?"

Every customer tells you two stories: what they say and what they do. Most products die in that gap. The best ones thrive in it. Where are you building?