Simple question. If x10 is a new norm and "one person is capable to ship what took team of 5 last year" (meaning that person became at least 5 times more productive). Where are YOUR contributions? Where are YOUR "new profitable business each month"? Where all this x10 - x1000 output is? Is it in the room with us?
Where are startups disrupting everything because "one person can do everything and fast" now? Where are all these infamous legions of agents that are constantly planning, building, testing, reviewing, refactoring and shipping to production?
I asked for receipts and you brought the vague "internet took 25 years to dissipate" and "trust me bro" (c).
Got it, thanks 🫡
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I know hundreds of examples of people dedicating millions of dollars to "AI" only to burn through resources, with results ranging from mediocre to absolutely devastating.
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I've seen the same pattern in web3 / crypto / (nft holding a separate space here) / defi space - endless hype "to the moon" and no meaningful change, let alone promised on every corner revolution, freedom, decentralization, "stakes and owning everything".
I've seen 3D printing for everyone, "IoT by 2020" with everything connected and smart, "everybody needs big data to unlock their full potential", metaverse, DAOs, etc.
I won't say all of them are useless and brought nothing good, but the promises and hype were ... impressive.
I have another definition for those two worlds that provide the thesis of this post.
* Those without a product or a market who hope that by throwing enough typewriters they'll find something. We call them "founders."
* Those who have a product and actually critically look at what LLMs produce. We call them "builders."
It's OK to be one or the other, it's really hard to be both.
How many months can you go not knowing what you've pushed? 2, tops?
Thanks for the well written post
Simple question. If x10 is a new norm and "one person is capable to ship what took team of 5 last year" (meaning that person became at least 5 times more productive). Where are YOUR contributions? Where are YOUR "new profitable business each month"? Where all this x10 - x1000 output is? Is it in the room with us?
Where are startups disrupting everything because "one person can do everything and fast" now? Where are all these infamous legions of agents that are constantly planning, building, testing, reviewing, refactoring and shipping to production?
Where are the receipts?
It took 25 years for the internet to dissipate across the world. This too will take a few. But it’ll come faster than we believe.
And I know many examples of what you’re asking for in SF. It’ll soon be the norm everywhere.
I asked for receipts and you brought the vague "internet took 25 years to dissipate" and "trust me bro" (c).
Got it, thanks 🫡
---
I know hundreds of examples of people dedicating millions of dollars to "AI" only to burn through resources, with results ranging from mediocre to absolutely devastating.
---
I've seen the same pattern in web3 / crypto / (nft holding a separate space here) / defi space - endless hype "to the moon" and no meaningful change, let alone promised on every corner revolution, freedom, decentralization, "stakes and owning everything".
I've seen 3D printing for everyone, "IoT by 2020" with everything connected and smart, "everybody needs big data to unlock their full potential", metaverse, DAOs, etc.
I won't say all of them are useless and brought nothing good, but the promises and hype were ... impressive.
it's 10x maybe if you started at being a 0.000001x developer. For regular devs, LLM gives somewhere between -2x (yes, minus) to 1.01x speedup.